One thing Sun Tzu talks about is "shaping" the enemy and keeping your own force "formless" (I’m at home just now and don’t have my text handy for specific citations).  These ideas came to mind when I read this bad news today:

In a coordinated assault on an American combat outpost north of
Baghdad, suicide bombers drove three cars filled with explosives into
the base today, killing two American soldiers and wounding at least 17
more, witnesses and the American military said.   

     It struck me that the whole "surge" thing – not just the increase in US troops, but also the new deployment of US forces in smaller, less fortified outposts that are closer to Iraqi society and insurgents – could be an example of the US being shaped by its adversary.  Think about it.  The failure of earlier US strategy to provide security in Baghdad impelled the US to change its approach: the US was reacting to enemy, being moved by the enemy, being shaped.  Thus, the US has lost the strategic initiative.

     Moreover, the US has taken up a position that plays to the adversary’s strength.  The insurgents are good at small-scale raids and suicide attacks.  It is more effective to defend against these assaults when US forces are sequestered in the large bases with lots of force protection.  In a sense, we are moving away from our strength and toward the enemy’s strength.  It is not hard to conceive of a series of these sorts of attacks having a significant political effect – a sort of a mini Tet Offensive (even if the US wins militarily, it loses politically).  And, as a colleague of mine pointed out today, if they mount serveral coordinated simultaneous attacks of outposts and kill 30-50 US soldiers, which seems to be within their capabiity, the political context would transform further to the disadvantage of the US.

       I know there is a broader counter-insurgency strategy behind the surge.  But the ground in Iraq seems ill-suited to US success with this strategy.  By putting soldiers out there in more vulnerable positions, the US is allowing itself to be shaped by the insurgents; they are moving American forces in a way that serves their capabilities.  They can see the form of our force and attack it.  The time for the in-the-neighborhood, small-scale outposts might have been April 2003, before the civil war escalated, when order might have been restored and hearts and minds won.  At this point, the "surge" is not more of the same; it is a change for the worse that plays to the enemy’s strength.