News reports suggest that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is planning to honor Hu Yaobang, the former party chief whose death in 1989 sparked the dramatic Tianamen protests and the subsequent Beijing massacre.  In the 1980’s, Hu – no relation to current Chinese president Hu Jintao – promoted more diversity in political discussion (or at least more diverse by Communist Party standards) and sponsored political reformers within the party-state.  Honoring him now raises the question of whether the current leadership is looking to change the official interpretation ("reverse the verdict" in commie speak) of the calamitous events of 1989 as a first step toward easing restrictions on political speech and, maybe, tolerating some liberalization:

"This might be a first step, a small but important one," said one informed party
member, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "If the party can change its
position on Hu Yaobang, it can change its position on June 4 and on political
reform."

    So, I consulted the oracle, asking: does the rehabilitation of Hu Yaobang mark the beginning of a reversal of the verdict of June 4th and a possible political opening?  And the answer is, unfortunately, no.

    The oracle brought back, significantly, hexagram 7, "The Army," with moving lines in the second and sixth position, tending toward hexagram 23, "Splitting Apart."

     The Army is a particularly apt hexagram for this question, since the People’s Liberation Army (you remember: the army that fired on the people) is at the center of the politics of June 4th and liberalization.  The hexagram makes two big points about the army.  First, in ancient times, the army was drawn from the people; peasants were impressed to fight during war and, when the conflict was over, they returned to the fields.  An important element in maximizing military power, therefore, was maintaining good relations with the common people.  If you exploit the peasants too much, they may not fight for you.  Second, leadership and discipline are absolutely essential for managing an army.  Taken together, these two ideas suggest that maintaining social stability through successful economic policies (keeping the people happy) and preserving the institutional integrity of the military are key priorities of the moment.

     This implies, on my reading at least, that the CCP will not upset the apple cart by opening up the very divisive issue of what really happened and who was responsible for the carnage of June 4th.  Allowing for public scrutiny of this issue might deflect attention away from the Party’s insistence that it is succeeding wonderfully in providing prosperity to the people (which, given growing economic inequality, we might want to question in itself).  Moreover, reversing the verdict on June 4 would mean embarrassing and maybe even demoting or politically deflating some current senior military leaders who were involved in the assault on Tiananmen Square, and that could undermine the military’s command structure and public image.

    And when we think about how sensitive the CCP is these days in the run up to the 2008 Olympics, it seems unlikely that they will risk a raucous political debate any time soon.

   In this interpretation, the tendency toward hexagram 23, "Splitting Apart," could suggest what would happen if the CCP did go ahead and reverse the June 4th verdict.  The image here is of political confusion, hence:

Under these circumstances, which are due to the time, it is not favorable for the superior man to undertake anything.

    So, the times are calling for some sort of political gesture by the leadership – and perhaps honoring Hu Yaobang fulfills that – but the hexagram is clearly calling for nonaction.  Otherwise the polity might split apart.

    Now, all of this could be read in the opposite manner.  The Army hexagram might be telling us that serious rectification of past misdeeds is needed to keep civilian-military relations on a sound basis.  But when I look at the picture as a whole, and think about current political conditions in China, I find the "no" answer more compelling.  The oracle seems to be saying that there will not be a reversal of the verdict on June 4th in the near future.