My friend, Daniel Bell, has an op-ed in today's International Herald Tribute in which he returns to the question of Confucianism and soft power (I written about this topic here and here and here).

Daniel and I disagree on this: he believes that Confucianism can serve as a source of soft power for the PRC; I believe that it cannot.  To be clear: I do believe that Confucianism can be useful in the modern world, it can provide a distinct moral theory that has bearing on many contemporary issues; but it is unlikely to operate sufficiently on a social and political scale to become a source of soft power.

Daniel's piece is practical: he is essentially asking how can China work to develop Confucianism as a source of soft power.  He identifies two ideas from the Confucian tradition that he believes can be universalized and, ultimately, be expressed through Chinese and domestic policies and practices to such a degree that other countries will be attracted:

But which values does China stand for and how can they be promoted abroad? Confucianism may be China’s main political tradition, but what are the key Confucian values that have the potential to make the world a better place? Like liberals and Christians, Confucians believe that their values ought to have universal reach, but China hasn’t done a good job exporting its political values beyond the East Asian region. As China becomes a global political power, such questions are likely to become more salient.

The Confucian tradition is diverse and contested, but Confucians today typically defend two key values: political meritocracy and harmony. The value of political meritocracy is not hard to explain. Everybody should have the same opportunity to be educated so as to participate in politics, but not everybody will emerge from this process with the equal ability to make morally informed decisions. Hence, an important task of the political system is to select those with above average ability.

These values are a reasonable starting point.  Let's just focus on meritocracy for now.

It's true that Confucius stands for a meritocracy of sorts.  And I agree with those Confucian modernizers that say full inclusion and participation of women in public life is completely consistent with Confucian principles (even though the historical uses of Confucianism in China were powerfully patriarchal).  A modern Confucian meritocracy would include women.

But there are a couple of problems when we think further about the extent to which the current Chinese experience and practice of meritocracy might impress and attract people in foreign countries (which is what soft power is ultimately all about).  A simple question: is the PRC right now a beacon of meritocracy?

One of the things that is quite noticeable about PRC public administration in recent years is corruption, officials using their public offices for personal gain.  Premiere Wen Jiabao gave a speech last month that outlined the problem:

According to Wen, a sound market environment with fair competition can only be created when the government uses laws and regulations to manage various market entities, provide services for them and ensure their rights.

The implication, which will ring true for many Chinese and many foreigners who follow Chinese politics, is that the PRC's political economy does not ensure "fair competition."   Many  (not all) people in positions of power are not the best and the brightest.  They are political loyalists who know that their adherence to Party hegemony provides a cover for their malfeasance.  It is a fundamental political-structural-problem, as Minxin Pei argues (PDF file).

Nepotism – an expression of the broader systemic corruption – thrives in the PRC.  In localities:

In 2008, Gushi county in Henan Province selected 12 township heads, who were all found to be relatives of local officials. The county officials argued that they all matched the criteria and had been chosen following the correct procedures, which included self-recommendation and nominations by senior officials.

A commentary on China National Radio said this so-called "correct procedure" was even worse than corruption, as it gave legitimacy to blatant nepotism. "When officials are chosen by a few officials, how can we prevent them from choosing their relatives?"

And at the heights of power:

The unspoken thought when Chairman's Mao grandson was appointed as China's youngest ever major-general last week [July 2010] was that revolutionary heritage had triumphed over martial prowess.

Now Mao Xinyu, 40, has confirmed that nepotism played its part in his appointment, admitting to a popular Chinese website that his family background was "definitely a factor" in the decision to add a second star to his epaulettes.

In a post from March, Stan Abrams at china/divide nails it:

For a country like China that has prided itself on being a meritocracy for hundreds of years, not to mention being one that is currently governed by egalitarian socialist principles, nepotism has got to be a particularly nasty thorn in its side. Corruption in all of its ugly glory is bad enough, but nepotism carries with it suggestions of aristocracy, a reminder of that ever-widening income gap and a departure from the Harmonious Society. 

China is not now a beacon of meritocracy in the world.  While it is true that corruption and nepotism are to be found all over the globe, China hardly stands out as better than most in this regard.  If the PRC is held up as an embodiment of meritocracy, foreign observers will see right away that it is not living up to its own professed standards.  Hard to see how soft power comes from that.

Thus, I continue to believe that China is not now a Confucian society.  Confucianism can be applied to Chinese, and American, issues and problems, but China, as a large and complex socio-political formation, cannot be labeled, generally, as "Confucian."   That is why Confucianism is unlikely to serve as a source of soft power.

And it is not at all clear to me that younger generations are buying into Confucian practice and identity, as these "post 90s" 非主流 (fei zhu liu – anti-mainstreamers)  illustrate: