Tomorrow morning early (4:15!) I will get in a car that takes me to the airport from which I will fly to the "beautiful island" (Formosa), aka Taiwan.  I have been invited to join a delegation of American academics, organized by the ROC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to observe and study the legislative elections that will occur on Saturday, January 12th.  I did something similar for the December 2004 legislative elections there, which led to this LA Times op-ed (that, unfortunately did not survive the editing process all that well; the original submission was longer and more polished).

     This time around, technology permitting, I will blog directly from Taiwan.  My posts will also appear at China Digital  Times. 

     Thus, posting will be light over the next couple of days, as I cross the international date line to the East China Sea.  But I will try to be up and running as soon as I get there.  And with my camera in hand I will also try to furnish timely photos as well.  Should be fun.

      Here are a couple of blogs to consult in the interim, people who know much more about Taiwan and its politics than I do, people from whom I learn a lot: the dean of English language Taiwan blogging, Michael Turton at The View From Taiwan; and That’s Impossible: Politics from Taiwan, which has a cool map that predicts each legislative district.  I may not agree with all of what they say, but they are great resources.

      For those new to Taiwan politics, here is a quick backgrounder from today’s AFP:

The race is tight as it will be the first election since a law
passed in 2004 cut to 113 the number of lawmakers in what is seen here
as an inefficient, rowdy legislature, and extended their term from
three to four years.

Of the 113 seats, 73 are for individual
constituencies, 34 will be allotted on a party list system, and six are
counted as aboriginal seats.

Voters will cast two ballots — one
for a specific candidate, the other for a party to determine the number
of non-constituency seats it will get.

Parties must win at least five percent of the vote to get seats.

Opinion
polls suggest that among committed voters the KMT will win by a
comfortable margin, but nearly half of all voters have not made up
their minds which party to support.

     The KMT (or Nationalists), known as the Blues, hold a current narrow majority in the legislature.  The DPP, the Greens, are the party of the current President Chen Shui-bian.  Most analyses are calling for a wider Blue majority after Saturday’s legislative election; That’s Impossible, which has a political preference for Greens, is predicting the KMT will walk away with 65-72 seats in the 113 seat house; the DPP will garner 37-43 seats; and the non-partison NPSU will pull down 5-6.

    Let’s see how well these numbers hold up.  I will report on other pre-poll predictions as they come forward.

     I will not be ignoring ancient Chinese philosophy in my journey.  I hope to visit the Confucian temple in downtown Taibei and post some pictures (though not the 360 treatment you can find here). 

    On the 16th I will hop over to Hong Kong for a few days to visit with my new agents at Creative Work and look up some friends and acquaintances.  I will post from there as well, and maybe make a pilgrimage to a Taoist temple. 

     All in all, it should be a blast: no snow shoveling and great fried noodles!

      Zai jian…..