A commenter, "Dave of the Coonties," over at WaPo’s Achenblog, noted that I had not yet analyzed, from the point of view of Sun Tzu, the University of Florida’s victory in the college football championship.  I am happy to oblige.  (Is this mere traffic whoring with the great and powerful WaPo?  In a word….yes).

    I watched a good portion of the first half (after which things seemed settled to me).  Truth in advertising: I am a Badger; a graduate of the University of Wisconsin and, thus, generally, a Big 10 sort of fellow.  I, like so many others, expected Ohio State to win.  In contemplating the stunning Gator victory, Sun Tzu can elucidate a thing or two.

    To start, let’s look at the very beginning of the Art of War, chapter one:

Therefore, to gauge the outcome of war we must appreciate the situation on the basis of the following five criteria, and compare the two sides by assessing their relative strengths.  The first of the five criteria is the Way (Tao), the second is climate, the third is terrain, the fourth is command, and the fifth is regulation.

     Let’s start with climate: obviously not a factor; same with terrain, not in the conventional sense of the condition of the field at least.  I don’t think either side could claim much of an advantage on these terms.  This leaves "command," which in modern college football terms might translate into coaching; and "regulation" which would be something like game plan.

     From what I saw, Florida had the edge in "command;" coaching decisions were steady and controlled.  Ohio State’s coach made some obvious mistakes, most glaringly the attempt to go for it on fourth and one in the second quarter that failed.  This not only led to a Florida field goal and an extension of their lead to 13 points, but it bolstered the Gators’ confidence and contributed to the sagging fortunes of the Buckeyes.  Jim Tressel, the OSU coach, recognized the error:

"We thought we could make it," Tressel said. "It ended up being the wrong call."

     Indeed.

    As to game plan and preparation, the Gators seemed to have the edge. This was especially evident in the play of the Florida defense.  The Buckeyes had an excellent season offensively, but the Gators had obviously studied them very closely.  They understood where OSU was likely to strike and they were ready for it.  As Sun Tzu says:

If we can make the enemy show his position while concealing ours from him, we will be at full force where he is divided.  If our army is united as one and the enemy is fragmented, in using the undivided whole to attack his one, we are many to his few.  If we are able to use many to strike few, anyone we take the battle to will be in desperate circumstances. (125)

     I think that fairly well captures the Florida run defense.

     So, Florida had a certain edge in coaching and game planning.  But the real difference, it seems to me, is "Way" (Tao).  "Way" is famously hard to translate.  Sun Tzu emphasizes its manifestations as morale or legitimacy.  But it is much more than that.  "Way" might best be understood as the complex totality of all things unfolding in time together right now.  It unites the realms of being and non-being.  More simply, some summarize it as "Nature".  It also has connotations of fate or destiny.  And in the first half of the game, Way was clearly working for Florida.

    It looked like Way was against the Gators: the opening kick-off return touchdown by OSU star Ted Ginn, Jr. seemed to signal that the big, cosmic forces surrounding the game were flowing toward the Buckeyes.  But then Ginn goes down!  He cannot return.  It seemed a cruel turn of fate but, as the Tao Te Ching (a foundational text of Taoist philosophy) says: "Heaven and earth are inhumane; they use the ten thousand things like straw dogs."  We can never know how Way will unfold; it can seem to be with us at one moment, and against us the next.  Such was the fate of Ohio State.

      If climate and terrain are a wash, and you have command and regulation on your side, you might win or you might lose.  You could be better at command and regulation but, if Way is against you, you may well be vanquished.  But if you have mastered command and regulation AND have Way moving with you, victory is all but inevitable.

     That’s what Sun Tzu would say…..