It has been a while since I have consulted the oracle, but recent events in the Mideast lead to a natural question: where is the war between Israel and Hezbollah/Hamas taking us?

   The answer that the I Ching came back with seems to be emphasizing the necessity of wise leadership to extract whatever good there might be in this bad situation.  Unfortunately, it is not clear, to me at least, who this wise leader might be.  More below the fold.

     The details of the reading: Hexagram 1, The Creative:

     With one moving line in the third place, thus tending toward Hexagram 10, Treading:

     On the face of it, Hexagram 1 could imply a creative transformation, the proverbial opportunity in crisis.  The Judgment statement reads:

The Creative works sublime success,
Furthering through perseverance.

    That sounds good, "sublime success."  And that sense is reinforced by the general significance of this hexagram.  It is all solid yang lines; it represents the destiny of heaven, a transcendent possibility.  When applied to the current Mideast war it could suggest that something good will arise out of the immediate mayhem.  But, as with all things I Ching, human agency plays a part here.  There must be an enlightened leader wise enough to see the brighter future and skillful enough to turn events in that direction.  Here is the Image statement:

The movement of heaven is full of power.
Thus the superior man makes himself strong and untiring.

     We need the "superior man," the Sage, the Jun Zi, to orchestrate the moment.  This idea is emphasized further in Hexagram 10, Treading.  Its Image statement is:

Heaven above, the lake below:
The image of Treading.
Thus the superior man discriminates between high and low,
And thereby fortifies the thinking of the people.

     There’s that "superior man" again.  And the need for his skills is made clear in the commentary on the Judgment:

In terms of a human situation, one is handling wild, intractable people.  In such a case one’s purpose will be achieved if one behaves with decorum.  Pleasant manners succeed with irritable people.

     That seems like a suggestion to let diplomacy work.  A good idea.

     My problem in interpreting this reading is: who is, or can be or will be, the "superior man;" and who are the "wild, intractable people"?  To take the last first, we can probably assume there are intractables on all sides of the conflict – in Hezbollah, in Israel, in the US.  Perhaps the oracle is telling us to keep watch on them and try to stick to the path of reasoned, careful diplomacy.   Don’t let the intractables set the agenda.

    But who will be the wise leader who pulls opportunity from the crisis?  It is hard to see Bush in this role: he has proven so inept at foreign policy, so weak as an independent thinker and mover, that I doubt that he has the skill or temperament to step up to this leadership challenge.  Condi Rice?  Hmm…. That could be interesting.  She is slowly coming to the fore with her planned trip to the region next week.  She obviously has the knowledge and the personal poise to mediate.  Her biggest disadvantage is the fact that she represents a government that has already chosen sides in the conflict and, thus, may not be able to serve as an "honest broker."

    The bottom line here is that clear-headed leadership is desperately required to make something good out of this war.  Perhaps it will not come from the US.  But it must come from somewhere.