On of the benefits of saving past I Ching readings in my archives, is the possibility it creates to go back and think about earlier prognostications and how interpretations might change over time.  Of late, with my teaching and administrative duties in full swing for our spring semester, I have not had the time to ponder past readings.  But my friend-in-Yi Allan Lian has.  This week he wrote two posts that reconsider some of my earlier questions about the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the various scandals that have engulfed Washington. 

    In his first post, on Feb 12, Allan returns to the question of responsibility and politics in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.  Working off the the I Ching reading I made back in September, he brings the story up to date with Michael Brown’s recent revelation that he had informed the White House in a timely manner of the impending breaks in the levees.  This has sparked a fight, of sorts, among various high-level officials.  Essentially Brown has squared off against the head of Homeland Security and the White House.  These centers of power are pushing back against Brown.   From Allan’s reconsideration of my I Ching post, we can make a fairly clear prediction regarding how all of this will play out: Brown will lose.  What the continuing embarrassment will mean for President Bush is not clear; but Brown will quickly become politically irrelevant.

    In his second post, on February 13, Allan takes up the question of Dick Cheney’s responsibility for the Valerie Plame scandal.  Allan considers this in light of the news that Lewis Libby is now saying that he was authorized to lead Plame’s identity by Cheney himself.  We can further update the story since Monday, but making note of the fact that Cheney himself has agree that he did, indeed, authorize the leak.  Thus the discussion has now shifted to the question of whether Cheney actually has the power to declassify secret information.  But, when considering the past reading, which suggested that if he did not press too hard against the charges he would be able to survive politically, I think this most recent move by Cheney suggests that he will weather this storm.  He has shifted attention away from his subordinate, and has yielded on a crucial point with his admission of responsibility.  If he had continued to deny any involvement whatsoever, as was his initial line of (apparently untrue) defense, that could have pointed to political failure.  In now changing his tune, he may have put himself in a better position.  We shall see.

     Allan also returns to an October reading I made on the question of how Bush will manage his various political problems.  They key thing that strikes me about that earlier reading, in light of what has transpired in the meantime, is that Bush has not followed the I Ching’s advice.  Then, the oracle was telling him to initiate some significant staff changes if he wanted to rebound politically.  Bush has not done that.  He has doggedly maintained his closest advisers and ministers.  Perhaps that is why, as the I Ching suggested, his job approval ratings remain very low (i.e. a majority disapprove of how he is doing his job).  No wonder his supporters are thinking about dumping Cheney.

     Perhaps two of these predictions are at odds with one another.  Maybe Bush cannot rebound politically if Cheney remains as Vice President.  But the I Ching says both will happen.  We will check in again in a couple of months, or whenever either story takes a significant turn.