Republicans in the US House of Representatives have chosen a new leader (the number 2 man, after the Speaker).  They are straining under the burden of scandal, with the ever-growing Abramoff affair threatening to dominate political news for a good portion of the year.  Their major worry is whether the steady stream of bad news will cause them to lose control of one or both houses of Congress this November, when midterm elections will take place. 

     So, I asked the I Ching: what are the prospects for the Republican party in the 2006 elections?  And the oracle came back with a somewhat positive response.  The party will be riven by internal opposition that will pose real dangers to its legislative majorities, but it will likely be delivered to victory in the end.

    Here are the particulars: Hexagram 38, "Opposition,"

with moving lines in the first and sixth positions, therefore tending toward Hexagram 40, "Deliverance."

    "Opposition" is not necessarily bad, in and of itself.  The great complementary tension of heaven and earth is powerfully creative and progressive.  But in human relations, and politics is certainly that, opposition can undermine big endeavors:

When people live in opposition and estrangement they cannot carry out a
great undertaking in common; their points of view diverge too widely.  In
such circumstances one should above all not proceed brusquely, for that
would only increase the existing opposition; instead, one should limit oneself
to producing gradual effects in small matters…

   Remember that I asked the question specifically about Republicans; so, the "opposition and estrangement" mentioned here is, I believe, a description of dissension within that party’s ranks.  If that is an accurate reading, then "gradual effects in small matters" might not add up to holding on to their majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.  But GOP victory is not absolutely precluded by this hexagram either.  They must handle their internal differences very carefully, as is suggested by the moving line in the first position:

Nine at the beginning means:
Remorse disappears.
If you lose your horse, do not run after it;
It will come back of its own accord.
When you see evil people,
Guard yourself against mistakes.

     The commentary on this line seems well suited to the new Republican leadership:

Even in times when oppositions prevail, mistakes can be avoided, so that
remorse disappears.  When opposition begins to manifest itself, a man must
not try to bring about unity by force, for by so doing he would only achieve
the contrary, just as a horse goes farther and farther away if one runs after it. 
If it is one’s own horse, one can safely let it go; it will come back of its own
accord.  So too when someone who belongs with us is momentarily estranged
because of a misunderstanding, he will return of his own accord if we leave
matters to him.

   What I take away from this is: the Republicans might hang on to their majorities if they exercise very deft and subtle leadership over their increasingly unruly members. 

    The nine in the sixth position also suggests pulling something good out of a difficult situation:

Nine at the top means:
Isolated through opposition,
One sees one’s companion as a pig covered with dirt,
As a wagon full of devils.
First one draws a bow against him,
then one lays the bow aside.
He is not a robber; he will woo at the right time.
As one goes, rain falls; then good fortune comes.

    I couldn’t resist the "wagon full of devils" image: perfectly captures Mr. DeLay and company, no?

    In any event, notice how things might go: if they "lay the bow aside," they might see themselves through to "good fortune."  But the situation is fraught.  Mistakes and misunderstandings could easily lead to failure.   For all of the difficulty, however, victory is possible, and this positive outcome is further suggested by "Deliverance."

     Hexagram 40, describes a resolution of turbulence, rather like the air clearing after a thunder storm:

Here the movement goes out of the sphere of danger.  The obstacle has been
removed, the difficulties are being resolved.

Indeed, this hexagram seems to be telling the Republicans how to act after they have secured a victory:

This refers to a time in which tensions and complications begin to be eased. 
At such times we ought to make our way back to ordinary conditions as soon
as possible…  These periods of sudden
change have great importance.  Just as rain relieves atmospheric tension,
making all the buds burst open, so a time of deliverance from burdensome
pressure has a liberating and stimulating effect on life.  One thing is
important, however: in such times we must not overdo our triumph.  The
point is not to push on farther than is necessary.  Returning to the regular
order of life as soon as deliverance is achieved brings good fortune.

    Return to "normal" politics (whatever that might be) and don’t "push on farther than is necessary:" advice to power holders who have just won a close but decisive victory.  That is the future suggested here for Republicans.

    BIAS WARNING: as a Massachusetts Democrat I obviously want the Republicans to lose.  But my personal preferences cannot get in the way of my interpretation of the I Ching.  I may not like it, but the oracle says the Republics will probably hold on to their majorities.