Osama bin Laden has issued a tape-recorded threat to attack the US.  Dan Drezner thinks the message has an air of desperation about it: bin Laden is struggling against his increasing irrelevance from a position of weakness. Perhaps.  It has seemed to push up gold prices as jittery investors look for safe havens in the event of an assault.  What does the oracle thing?

    I asked: what does the most recent threat portend?  And the I Ching answered that it could spark a tighter alliance between the US and Pakistan against terrorism.  That, at least, is what I interpret the I Ching to have said…

    The answer that came back was Hexagram 35, "Progress," (which was also a part of my last divination), with no moving lines:

     The Judgment here talks about a "powerful prince:"

PROGRESS.  The powerful prince
Is honored with horses in large numbers.
In a single day he is granted audience three times.

The commentary goes on to discuss how, to achieve success or progress, there must be a close and respectful working relationship between the ultimate sovereign and the high-ranking feudal lords (remember this was written in the feudal Zhou dynasty).  The sovereign must trust and recognize (by giving him horses) the abilities of the lower ranking prince, and the prince, in turn, must have " enough clarity
of vision not to abuse his great influence but to use it rather for the benefit of
his ruler."

    What can this possibly mean in the context of bin Laden’s most recent threat?  I think the suggestion here is that the new tape recording should be met with closely coordinated efforts between the "sovereign" (the US?) and the "prince," which could indicate President Musharraf of Pakistan.  I know Pakistanis would not like their national leader to be placed in a lower status than the US president, but, in terms of power, there is some truth to that ranking.  If we read the hexagram this way, it may be saying that "progress" can be made against bin Laden, if Musharraf takes more initiative against him (even though this might be difficult after the recent US bombing), and the US rewards Pakistan for this effort (give him "horses in large numbers").

   As with last week’s reading, I find a certain optimism in this hexagram (even though Steve in last week’s comments, rightly raised a cautionary note): it symbolizes a sunrise; the world becomes brighter, the darkness retreats.  That sounds like a decline in terrorist killing.  And the I Ching is pointing the way to achieving that good outcome: if the sovereign works closely with the prince, progress will be gained.   Maybe Dan is right, maybe Osama really is in a position of weakness.