The Valerie Plame scandal (which is all about the public disclosure of a covert CIA agent for political purposes) is soon to reach a climax: there is widespread expectation that indictments could be forthcoming, perhaps next week, and they could include charges against some of the most powerful political figures in Washington: Karl Rove and I. Lewis Libby.  There is some speculation, though not especially strong, that the President could be implicated (remember the Nixon-era term: "unindicted co-conspirator"?).  But the Vice President’s office appears to be the focus of the investigation.   

     Given the focus on Vice President Cheney’s closest adviser, I Lewis Libby, the question naturally arises: is Cheney himself involved in all of this and will he be forced to resign because of it?  That is the question I put to the I Ching.  And the answer is: no, he will probably not resign, but he will be challenged by it and will have to work carefully to come back from it.

     The details: the oracle returned Hexagram 9, "The Taming Power of the Small," with one moving line in the third position, thus tending in the direction of Hexagram 61, "Inner Truth" (which was last week’s second hexagram as well.).

    My reading of this is that Cheney faces some danger.  In the most general sense the taming power of the small is about a strong figure (Cheney) being held in check by a weaker figure (the prosecutor).  From the point of view of the strong (which I take to be Cheney given his very high political position): "The situation is not unfavorable; there is a prospect of ultimate success, but there are still obstacles in the way, and we can merely take preparatory measures."  The "obstacle" of the investigation is real and threatening, thus must be taken seriously, but it does not pose a long-term threat if it is handled properly.  And the oracle tells Cheney how to act in the coming weeks and months:

To carry out our purposes we need firm determination within and gentleness and adaptability in external relations…

So also an individual, in times when he can produce no great effect in the outer world, can do nothing except refine the expression of his nature in small ways.

    A certain modesty and low profile are called for (in fact, he has been keeping a low profile of late).  Thought "gentleness" is not a word usually associated with Cheney, he will have to find ways of radiating gentility to get through the difficult time at hand.

    The moving line in the third position seems to be a warning about what will happen if he tries to fight back too vigorously against the investigation and the likely loss of his closest adviser:

Here an attempt is made to press forward forcibly, in the consciousness that the obstructing power is slight.  But since, under the circumstances, power actually lies with the weak, this sudden offensive is doomed to failure.

        The second hexagram, symbolizing the likely trend, suggests that Cheney will not make this mistake, but will survive and rebuild his staff and his political position.  As I mentioned last week, the striking feature of the Inner Truth hexagram is its physical balance, suggesting harmony and equilibrium. The text also suggests success after careful interpersonal diplomacy:

In dealing with persons as intractable and as difficult to influence as a pig or a fish [might this be a determined prosecutor?], the whole secret of success depends on finding the right way of approach.  One must first rid oneself of all prejudice and, so to speak, let the psyche of the other person act on one without restraint.  Then one will establish contact with him, understand and gain power over him.

    Thus, success is possible, and, even, a return to a more active political life: "It furthers one to cross the great water."

    So, look for Cheney to survive and take off on a significant international trip next year.