Mencius reminds us that the basis of legitimacy for any government, democratic or authoritarian, is providing security and prosperity to the people (when he refers here to winning "all under Heaven" he means establishing sovereign rule):

The way to win over all under Heaven is to win over the people.  The way to win over the people is to win over the people’s hearts.  And the way to win over the people’s hearts is to surround them with what they want and keep them clear of what they hate.  (129).

     What Hurricane Katrina has done is to raise a serious question about the capacity of the US government to surround its citizens, all of its citizens – even the poorest and weakest – with what they want and keep them clear of what they hate.  I will sidestep here the question of blame: local government v. federal government.  Rather, it seems now we have a clearly established social fact: the preparation for and response to the disaster was terribly inadequate.

      It will take a long time for all of the implications of this fact to reveal themselves.  But I am fairly confident now in one likely outcome: a significant deflation in the political appeal of the neoconservative idea that the US, as the most powerful country in the world, should march forth and transform the world, via regime-changing and democracy-building, in its own image.  I can just about feel the turning inward of American political attention. 

     It will cost incredible amounts of money to rebuild New Orleans.  And there are about 34 cities that are larger, by population, than NO.   What will it take to think through the various disaster and terrorist scenarios for all of those places, and others, and create adequate preparations for mass evacuations, health care, and the like?   Especially given the connection to "homeland defense," it seems to me that US politics for the next five years will be driven by leaders who can seize the initiative on these sorts of domestic issues. 

    Today I heard an interview on Fox TV with Newt Gingrich (sorry, can’t find a link!).  He ripped the fumbling response thus far.  And then he laid out a plan to rebuild NO faster than expected and greater than it was.  He is making it a matter of national pride, indeed national identity, to prove to the world the greatness of the US.  In essence, what he is doing is stealing the "national purpose" rhetoric of the neoconservatives, turning it away from Iraq and toward Louisiana.  Whatever one thinks of Gingrich or his idea, it seems to me that it will have considerable political effect.  He is, after all, running for President.  And he is a shrewd politician.

    In short, the wind is rapidly leaving the sails of the neocons foreign policy ideology.  They had great influence for several years, but their time is now past.  Gingrich, and, I imagine, numerous Democratic politicians will all be taking a Mencian turn in their thinking.  The big question now is how can we surround them with what they want and keep them clear of what they hate.