In the past several years, and most especially in 2005, more and more public demonstrations, some quite violent, have broken out across China.  People are angry about official corruption, environmental pollution, and a host of other problems; they are taking their grievances to the streets.  One question that follows from all of this: is China on the verge of a politically significant breakdown in public order? 

     When I put this question to the I Ching this morning the answer that came back described how the leadership should behave to avoid such a breakdown.  And since, from what I can see, the leadership there is not acting as the oracle advises, it would seem that the answer is, yes, China is on the verge of social disorder of a politically significant nature.  Perhaps not in the same manner as the tragic democracy protests of 1989, but historically notable.

     The details of the reading: the oracle yielded hexagram 61, "Inner Truth," with no moving lines, thus not tending toward any other hexagram.

     The symmetry of this hexagram – two solid lines at the bottom, two broken lines in the middle, and two solid lines on top – suggests a certain complementarity between superior and inferior political forces.  The Wang Bi commentary on this hexagram, from Richard John Lynn’s translation, emphasizes the importance of the "straightforwardness and rectitude" of those in positions of authority, and the "passivity and compliance" of average citizens.  When such conditions apply, "even fishes and swine [lowly members of the animal kingdom] have good fortune."

     Yet these are precisely the conditions that are lacking in Chinese politics now.  Instead of "straightforwardness and rectitude," the PRC leadership so is riddled with corruption and venality that it has lost the public trust; hence the increase in desperate protests and demonstrations. 

     As with most I Ching readings, the oracle suggests the kind of behavior that might push the situation toward the good (agency is a central feature of I Ching divination).  The Commentary on the Images from Lynn says:

…the noble man evaluates criminal punishments and mitigates the death penalty.

    The idea here is the noble-minded ruler taking time to discern the underlying causes of unruly behavior in a search for the most humane and just legal-political outcome.  This is not what PRC leaders are doing.  Instead, they are threatening harsher punishments for law breakers (the protests and demonstrations are almost always technically illegal), forming new police forces, and resisting any political change that might reduce their monopolization on power.

    The I Ching here is echoing the principles of humane government put forth by Confucius and Mencius (it is said that Confucius provided commentary on the I Ching), but it is an element of traditional China that contemporary Chinese rulers seem all too willing to ignore.