We’re back from the beach and, though a little late, ready to get back to our regularly scheduled blogging. 

    For today’s I Ching question, I asked the oracle if work on the Iraqi constitution, which is supposed to produce something like a draft on Monday, will achieve meaningful political progress.  And the answer is: probably not.   The I Ching tells us that the key need, at this point, is delicate and yielding diplomacy, precisely what has been in very short supply in Iraqi politics of late.  Whatever happens on Monday will most likely not produce meaningful political progress.  Let me explain…

     Here are the basics of the response: hexagram 9, "The Taming Power of the Small," with three moving lines – a pure yin in the fourth position and pure yangs in the fifth and sixth positions – thus tending in the direction of hexagram 34, "The Power of the Great."

     "The Taming Power of the Small" describes difficult circumstances:

The situation is not unfavorable; there is a prospect of ultimate success, but there are still obstacles in the way and  we can merely take preparatory measures.  Only through the small means of friendly persuasion can we exert any influence.  The time has not yet come for sweeping measures.

     This suggests that Iraqi politics, with so many large and fundamental differences among the three main groups, is not now suited for a big transformation.  But large-scale change is the goal of the constitutional process.  The I Ching is telling us that the times are not right for the kind of "sweeping measures" the constitution envisions. 

     The three moving lines also imply an unstable moment.  The first two point to the importance of sincerity on the part of the leaders of the various groups.  The six in the fourth place, in particular, calls for restraint in order to avoid bloodshed.  The message here seems to be that in dealing with the difficult circumstances at hand, each side much compromise, accept less than desired, and work sincerely with each other.  That has not been the hallmark of recent Iraqi politics.

    The nine in the sixth position holds out the possibility of ultimate success, but only if it is secured by gradual, step by step measures:

But a success thus secured bit by bit calls for great caution.  It would be a dangerous illusion for anyone to think he could presume upon it… Under such circumstances one must be content with what has been achieved.  To advance any further, before the appropriate time has come, would lead to misfortune.

     So, careful compromise and restraint are called for.  Will the Kurds be willing to stop short of the full autonomy they have long desired?  Will the Shiites accept a reduced role of the clergy and religion in the law?  Will the Sunni be comfortable with their status as a permanent political minority?  These are big questions that, thus far, have not produced much in the way of accommodation.

    The tendency toward "The Power of the Great" also suggests some peril.  The image here is of thunder in heaven, a powerful combination of strength and movement.  But such raw power is not always a good thing; it could be quite dangerous if used in the wrong way.   Here is a section of the commentary:

… hence there is danger that one may rely entirely on one’s own power and forget to ask what is right.  There is danger too that, being intent on movement, we may not wait for the right time.  Therefore the added statement that perseverance furthers.  For that is truly great power which does not degenerate into mere force but remains inwardly united with the fundamental principles of right and of justice.

    Beyond the obvious applicability of this statement to the unilateral force of US foreign policy, it is hard to see how, in the current context of continued violence, leaders will be able to resist the urge for retaliation and force.   I wonder if Sistani may be the person capable of keeping the country from descending into full-scale civil war – he seems a peaceful man with an ideal of justice.  But the three-way contest that has emerged seems more likely to sweep the taming power of the small aside, and produce an explosive and violent expression of the power of the great.

      Maybe my reading is incorrect.  Maybe a unifying and wise leader, like King Wen, one of the heroic creators of the Chou dynasty, will come forth to forge a new Iraq.  But I just don’t see that happening now.