Three of you made suggestions for I Ching consultations: Jon C asked about the North Korean talks; "Little Ronnie" wanted to ask about the New York Yankees "unfair" advantage in the baseball market; and Aodhan suggested we consider the effects of the IRA disarmament announcement. 

    I posted this week already on North Korea.  The question of parity in baseball seems somewhat less important (though I will blog in the future on the Yankees).  So, I will consult the oracle on the issue of Northern Ireland.

     I am exercising some diviner’s license, however.  Aodhan asked about the possibility of a united Ireland.  This seems a rather remote outcome.  The more immediate issue might be whether the current peace can hold.  The IRA announcement could create an incentive for Protestant militia violence in response.  So, the question I put to the I Ching is this: will violence abate following IRA disarmament?

     And the answer is: probably yes.  But something very spooky happened.  In the near thirty years I have been consulting the I Ching, never has it happened that on consecutive questions I received the same answer.  Well, now it has happened (in public no less!).  I threw the same hexagrams and moving line as last week.  This must mean the oracle is calling out attention to the significance of this week’s response.  Read on for the full interpretation:

     Just like last week, the first hexagram is "Youthful Folly," with a pure yin line in the fourth position, thus tending in the direction of the hexagram "Before Completion."

     In this case, the total picture suggests a time of difficulty which, if handled correctly, will yield an orderly outcome.  That sounds generally positive to me.  Peace will likely hold.

     Remember, "Youthful Folly" presents an image of a young student, prone to mistakes, seeking out a wise teacher.  A search for experienced leadership suggests itself.  If the student listens to what his elder says and sticks to his lessons, good will follow:

Given in addition a perseverance that never slackens until the points are mastered one by one, real success is sure to follow.

     Unsurprisingly, it comes down to how leaders in all the relevant communities react from here on.  If the militias strike, the I Ching seems to be saying that everyone – the IRA, the British government, Protestants of good will – should not respond in kind.  Perseverance furthers.

      The pure yin in the fourth place suggests that hanging on to ideologies or historical animosities will bring failure:

…it is a most hopeless thing to entangle itself in empty imaginings…

      So, the situation is fraught, but hopeful.

     This message is reinforced in "After Completion."  Just like last week, the caution of an old fox is required.  But there is a sense here of emergent order:

This hexagram indicates a time when the transition from disorder to order is not yet completed…

     Does that sound like Northern Ireland?  Perhaps.  There is a connection here to Spring: a time when natural order emerges from the dark of Winter, opening on to the beauty of Summer.  It is a optimistic scene.  So, it seems, the oracle is telling us: peace will hold.

     What does this augur for a united Ireland, Aodhan’s original question?  I guess it depends on what you think the effects of peace will be.  Does a peaceful Norther Ireland set the stage, somewhere further down the line, for a political reunification of sorts?