I think I will make this a regular feature: Friday I Ching blogging.  Every Friday I will consult the I Ching (the ancient Chinese divination text, aka, The Book of Changes) on a pressing question of the day and report the results here (warning: let’s not take this too seriously – it is meant to be fun; and it may be better than cat blogging…)

     Today the question is: Will Karl Rove lose his job as Presidential adviser.  And the answer is: probably not.  More below the fold.

    The technical stuff: I tossed the coins and got the hexagram "Youthful Folly," with a "moving" (or "pure yin") line in the fourth place, suggesting the situation was tending in the direction of "Before Completion." 

    What does this mean?

    "Youthful Folly" describes a period of floundering and humiliation.  The standard image is of an inexperienced student searching for the wisdom of a venerable teacher.  So, Karl finds himself in the unusual, for him, position of the vulnerable naif: he has made a mistake and is looking for someone to help him out of the mess. 

     There is the possibility here of success.  If Karl finds the right advice, the smart teacher, he could well climb out of the abyss.  But if he is too proud, fails to find the right adviser, and clings to "empty imaginings," he could well fail.  Here is an excerpt from the commentary on that pure yin line in the fourth position:

For youthful folly it is the most hopeless thing to entangle itself in empty imaginings.  The more obstinately it clings to such unreal fantasies, the more certainly humiliation will overtake it.

    Is Karl obstinate and proud?  Maybe.  So, he could stumble by doing the wrong thing.  But the I Ching, by pointing toward "Before Completion" suggests that he will find his way through.

     The judgment section of this hexagram bears quotation at length:

The conditions are difficult.  The task is great and full of responsibility.  it is nothing less than that of leading the world out of confusion back to order.  But it is a task that promises success, because there is a goal that can unite the forces now tending in different directions. At first, however, one must move warily, like an old fox walking over ice…

     I’m sure the White House crowd sees this in just such apocalyptic terms: leading the world out of confusion.  If they can keep their forces united (are there people within the administration who would like to see Rove go?) and turn the media story to their advantage again, then they could pull it off.  It will require discipline (stay on message) and caution, however.

    Bottom line: can Rove act like an old fox crossing the ice?  I would bet that he can.  Most likely, he finds a way out of the controversy and stays in office, just as Han Fei Tzu also suggested.